Trump Takes Lead In 2nd Nationwide Poll, Erases 12 Pt Hillary Lead In 1 Week

Trump is now up 1 point in the ABC/Wapo Poll which had Hillary up 12 points just last week.

Hillary’s damage in the polls continues to get worse in the wake of several ongoing scandals.

First Hillary began leaking voters from the WikiLeaks scandal as the media told the massive it was having no effect.

Hillary Hemorrhaging Votes in Wake of WikiLeaks Fallout

Hillary is down, on average, nearly 3 points in 7 Nationwide Polls in the wake of the WikiLeaks Fallout. As the Hillary Clinton campaign gets bombarded with scandal after scandal.

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The media told the mass the FBI scandal was having no effect on polls as Hillary’s lead topped within the margin of error in several polls and while going from tied to 4 points up in the latest LA Times nationwide general election poll.

MSM DEAD SILENT AS TRUMP GOES UP 4 POINTS IN LATEST NATIONWIDE GENERAL ELECTION POLL

Hillary Clinton Takes Massive Hit in Polls Following FBI Email Investigation scandal while the MSM continues to following orders to #JustKeepSpinning claiming that scandal will have little to no effect

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And now the ABC/Washington Post poll which had Hillary up 12 points is showing Trump is leading by 1 pt.

Ironically the poll states Hillary enthusiasm has ebbed in the fallout from the 2 ongoing FBI investigations and it has gone from oversampling Democrats by 9% to oversampling Democrats by 10%:
Via Zero Hedge:

Trump Takes Lead In ABC/WaPo Poll That Gave Hillary 13 Point Advantage Just One Week Earlier

The first fully post-FBI shocker ABC/WaPo poll is out and it is a shocker: in a poll that saw Hillary lead by a dominating 13 points as recently as one week ago, moments ago ABC/WaPo/Langer Research announced that Trump has not only taken the lead from Hillary, but this is the first time he has done so since May.

As a reminder, this is the same poll that as we reported over the weekend, effectively confirmed to “poll tampering” which saw Hillary’s lead collapse from 12 points to just 2 several days ago.

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The reason: according to ABC, “strong enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has ebbed since the renewal of the FBI’s email investigation.”

What is most stunning is that the Democrat oversampling in the poll has now grown to a whopping 10 points!

According to the poll, self-identified Democrats outnumber Republicans among likely voters by 10 points, 38 to 28 percent. There are three reasons why the race is so close despite the major overrepresentation of democrats:

  • One, this narrows to a 5-point gap, 48-43 percent, including independents who lean toward one party or the other.
  • The second is Trump’s advantage among pure independents, as noted –- even though they account for just 7 percent of all likely voters.
  • And the third is the fact that Trump wins 9 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners, while Clinton is supported by 6 percent of Republicans and those who lean toward the GOP –- another slight difference, and not statistically significant.

But in contests this close, small differences add up. Vote preference results are essentially identical in 23 likely voter models produced for diagnostic purposes, with turnout estimates ranging from 43 to 81 percent of the voting-age population. Seventeen of the individual models produce a 45-46 percent Clinton-Trump race, as does the average of all 23.

As a result, Trump now leads Clinton by 8 points in the share of voters who are very enthusiastic about their choice as of Friday. But, compared to past elections it’s low for both of them –- 53 percent for Trump, 45 percent for Clinton.

Strong enthusiasm for Clinton has lost 7 points since the start of tracking, especially Friday through Sunday. This is possibly an after-effect of the renewed controversy over her use of a private email server while secretary of state. Trump’s strong enthusiasm has held steady in tracking, which started Oct. 20.

To be sure, the 1-point Clinton-Trump race overall is well within the survey’s margin of sampling error, and the notoriously goalseeked poll may have been merely constructed in a way to wake Democrats from their slumber and get them to vote in a race that was all but decided as recently as last week. Combining the last seven nights, across which results have been very stable, the results flip to 46-45 percent, Clinton-Trump, with .4 percentage point gap. Again, it is not a significant difference.

Either way, the results are exceedingly close. Trump’s +1 is a noteworthy result; he’s led Clinton numerically just once before, +2 in late May (among registered voters in a two-way test), after he clinched the GOP nomination while Clinton was still in a duel with Bernie Sanders in the Democratic race. Although the election is close at this point, vote preference results a week out are not necessarily predictive of the final result. Mitt Romney was +1 vs. Barack Obama in comparable tracking poll results in 2012, for example, and John Kerry was +1 vs. George Bush a week out in 2004.

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