France’s CEREA – US Cesium Contamination Levels Exponentially Higher Than Parts Of Japan


Simulation Map of Cesium-137 Deposition Released By France’s CEREA Shows Cesium Levels In The US Is Exponentially Higher Radiation Contamination In Parts of Japan

Ex-Skf via The Intel Hub
Additional notes and graphics by Alexander Higgins
September 1, 2011

France’s CEREA has the simulation map of ground deposition of cesium-137 from the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant accident on its “Fukushima” page.

It not only shows Japan but also the entire northern Pacific Rim, from Russian Siberia to Alaska to the West Coast of the US to the entire US.


France’s CEREA – Cesium In US Higher Than Parts Of Japan
According to the map, the US, particularly the West Coast and particularly California, may be more contaminated with radioactive cesium than the western half of Japan or Hokkaido.

It looks more contaminated than South Korea or China. Canada doesn’t look too well either, particularly along the border with US on the western half.

From CEREA’s Fukushima page:

Atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from the Fukushima-Daichii nuclear power plant

CEREA, joint laboratory École des Ponts ParisTech and EdF R&D

Victor Winiarek, Marc Bocquet, Yelva Roustan, Camille Birman, Pierre Tran

Map of ground deposition of caesium-137 for the Fukushima-Daichii accident.

The simulation was performed with a specific version of the numerical atmospheric chemistry and transport model Polyphemus/Polair3D. The parametrisations used for the transport and physical removal of the radionuclides are described in [1,2,3,4].

The magnitude of the deposition field is uncertain and the simulated values of deposited radionuclides could be significantly different from the actual deposition. In particular, the source term remains uncertain. Therefore, these results should be seen as preliminary and they are likely to be revised as new information become available to better constrain the source term and when radionuclides data can be used to evaluate the model simulation results.


CEREA Simulation Map Of Cesium Deposition Displayed Using Logarithmic Scale
The page also has the animated simulation of cesium-137 dispersion from March 11 to April 6, 2011.

If the Japanese think they are the only ones who have the radiation and radioactive fallout from the accident, they are very much mistaken, if the simulation is accurate. (Meteorological institutes and bureaus in Austria, Germany, and Norway all had similar simulation maps.)

Radioactive materials spewed out of Fukushima I Nuke Plant went up and away on the jet stream, reaching the other side of the Pacific.

When the fallout from explosions (March 14, 15) reached the US West Coast, it came with an unusually heavy rainfall in California.

CEREA’s description of the animation (if the animation doesn’t work, or if you want to see the bigger one, go to CEREA’s page):

Movie of the Fukushima-Daichii activity in the air (caesium-137, ground level)

The simulation was performed with a specific version of the numerical atmospheric chemistry and transport model Polyphemus/Polair3D. The parametrisations used for the transport and physical removal of the radionuclides are described in [1,2,3,4].

The magnitude of activity concentration field is uncertain and could be significantly different from the actual one. In particular, the source term remains uncertain. Therefore, these results should be seen as preliminary and they are likely to be revised as new information become available to better constrain the source term and when radionuclides data can be used to evaluate the model simulation results.

Editor’s note:

The CEREA map shows contamination on using logarithmic. That means the level of cesium contamination in higher contaminated areas is actually higher by an exponential function than in the lower contaminated areas.By presenting the map in logarithmic format the contamination levels are ‘scaled’ in a manner which DOWNPLAYS the level of contamination in the higher contaminated areas.For example, here is a stock chart using logarithm scale on the top and the normal linear scale on the bottom.
Stock chart with logarithmic scale on the top and linear scale on the bottom

Notice how the log chart on the top has a much higher axis between $50 and $60 while the distance between $200 and $21o is much smaller.

CEREA also makes the disclaimer that the simulated values of deposited cesium is uncertain, particularly because the source terms is uncertain. Make no mistake about it however, what that means is that they are showing the levels of contamination based on official TEPCO and government reported data of levels of radiation released. We constantly learn that official government supplied numbers are skewed, often far under reported and later revised greatly higher. This means that when, and if, the real levels of radiation released the actual level of cesium contamination in the United States and Canada will be much higher than the simulation map.

Categories: ENVIRONMENT, FUKUSHIMA, HEALTH

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